A new map illustrating the global consequences of failing to keep climate change to under 2 degrees Celsius was launched today by the UK Government. With just 45 days to go before international climate change talks begin in Copenhagen, British ministers are pressing for the most ambitious deal possible in order to avoid these dangerous impacts.

The map highlights some of the impacts that may occur if the global average temperature rises by 4 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial climate average. It shows that a 4 degree average rise will not be spread uniformly across the globe. The land will heat up more quickly than the sea, and high latitudes, particularly the Arctic, will have larger temperature increases. The average land temperature will be 5.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

The map includes Armenia in a region that could be hit by increased forest fires.  But it is not intended to show every possible impact.  Climate change on this scale would mean much bigger problems for Armenia, hitting agriculture and water supplies as well as increasing the risk of more frequent extreme weather events, such as storms.

The UK Government is aiming for an agreement at Copenhagen that limits climate change as far as possible to 2 degrees Celsius, beyond which the risks of dangerous climate change become much greater. If we do nothing, it is predicted that global warming will cause potentially catastrophic changes in the future.  Avoiding that requires the agreement at Copenhagen to be global and ambitious.

The Foreign Secretary, David Miliband said, “This map clearly illustrates the scale of the challenge facing us today - climate change is a truly global problem that needs a global solution and it is a solution we have within our grasp. But to tackle the problem of climate change, all of us - foreign ministries, environment ministries, and all parts of government and societies - must work together to keep global temperatures to 2 degrees.”

The map was developed using the latest science from the Met Office Hadley Centre and other leading scientists. The impacts on human activity shown on the map are only a selection of those that may occur, and highlight the severe effects on water availability, agricultural productivity, extreme temperatures and drought, the risk of forest fire and sea level rise.

Prof. Chris Rapley CBE, Director of the Science Museum and Professor of Climate Science at University College London said: “The map provides graphic evidence of the dramatic transformation of our world that a 4 degree global temperature rise would trigger. It leaves no doubt of the paramount importance of a successful outcome of the Copenhagen negotiations.”

Further information on the map can be found at www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/guide/effects/

The online version of the 4 degree world map provides an interactive web tool which allows the user to focus on certain impacts, geographies and access more information about the science behind the map. The map is at www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk/4degrees.